The FAFO economy

Dear reader,

This week, I explain why the US economy looks worse for wear, break down what comes after the US-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, discuss Russia’s threat to the Baltics with the Latvian foreign minister, and answer your questions on nuclear proliferation and Justin Trudeau’s replacement. Plus, your weekly rec from my dog Moose.

Let’s get to it,

- Ian

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America is souring on Trumponomics. Trump may not care.

Design Credit: Jess Frampton

For someone who campaigned on lowering grocery prices on day one and rode widespread economic discontent to the White House, Donald Trump sure seems bent on pursuing policies that will increase that discontent.

If you don’t believe me, take it from the president himself, who refused to rule out a recession last Sunday and acknowledged that his sweeping tariff plans would cause “a little disturbance.” But, he added, “we are okay with that.”

Are we okay with that, though?

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From Trump pump to Trump dump

Trump’s election victory unleashed “animal spirits” as many business leaders and investors hoped he’d follow through on his campaign promises to cut red tape and lower taxes while ignoring the more disruptive planks of his economic platform: tariff hikes and immigration restrictions. Surely much of it was posturing and bluffing, they thought, and Trump’s more extreme impulses would be checked by market-friendly advisers like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In the worst-case scenario, they assumed Trump would course correct when confronted with sliding stock prices or signs of economic cracks.

Slowly but surely, they are starting to realize they got it wrong. Trump meant what he said and is less bound by constraints than during his first term. (I hate to say I told you so, but it wouldn’t have taken them so long to figure this out if they subscribed to this newsletter.)

The S&P500 has dropped by 8% over the last month (so far) as the president’s promised “golden age” of growth collided with the chaotic reality of Trumponomics. American equities are not only lower than they were before Trump’s inauguration but have erased all gains since he became the odds-on favorite to win the race in October. This represents the worst stock market performance in a president’s first 50 days since Barack Obama took office in the midst of the global financial crisis.

But it’s not just Wall Street that’s souring on Trump’s plans. Consumers, small businesses, and CEOs alike are all reporting sharp declines in confidence, largely due to record uncertainty about tariffs. Manufacturing activity is slowing, retail sales and construction spending are falling, and businesses of all kinds are paring back their investment plans as threats to the US outlook mount.

Inflation expectations are on the rise, with 60% of Americans believing Trump isn’t doing enough to bring down inflation and 68% fearing that his tariffs will lead to higher prices. Most Americans think the economy is on the wrong track and disapprove of the president’s handling of it. No wonder Trump’s net approval has taken a quick hit, his honeymoon ending faster than any other president’s save one: Trump 1.0.

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💬 Got a question you’d like answered? Or thoughts on anything you’ve read so far? Let me know in the comments below—I’d love to hear from you!

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It's the economic uncertainty, stupid

Businesses and investors have reason to worry.

In his first six weeks in office, Trump has made it clear that he is dead serious about building a “tariff wall” around America, not as a negotiating tool but to reshape global trade flows. The US effective tariff rate is set to rise to its highest level since the 1940s by the end of the year, raising prices for American consumers and businesses and slowing down growth. Trump has virtually closed the southern border and ramped up the pace of deportations, which will constrain the labor supply and lead to higher prices and lower growth. He has threatened to eliminate government subsidies, contracts, and grants that businesses, universities, and other organizations rely on. And he has empowered Elon Musk’s chaotic effort to purge, downsize, and capture the administrative state, threatening the delivery of critical public services, amplifying these macroeconomic shocks, and destroying US state capacity.

And yet, these first-order consequences of Trump’s policies are not the core reason why traders and boardrooms are freaking out about the outlook for the US economy. Don’t get me wrong, businesses prefer good policies to bad policies. But they can adapt to bad policies. You know what they can’t adapt to? Policies that can turn on a dime based on the president’s whims.

Maybe you agree with Trump that “trade wars are good and easy to win,” or perhaps you believe his policies will cause short-term pain but be worth it in the long run. But whatever you may think of the merits of his agenda, there’s no denying that the constant uncertainty he brings to the table is terrible for business.

Every business decision is a bet about the future. The one non-negotiable before making any investment is a bare minimum of predictability. When the rules of the game can change any day (and when they’re no longer applied impartially), the rational choice is to put off costly long-term investment plans – even if the possible payoffs are high.

That’s why the extreme policy arbitrariness, volatility, and uncertainty that characterizes Trump 2.0 – best exemplified by his on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs – is the ultimate economic dampener. Even if Trump walks back some tariffs or implements his pro-growth promises, uncertainty – by some metrics already higher than it was during the pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, and 9/11 – will remain near all-time highs for the foreseeable future, discouraging investment, hiring, and consumption, and raising prices. Its chilling effect will compound the direct impact of the administration’s implemented tariffs, deportations, federal layoffs, and so on. As I warned in Eurasia Group’s Top Risks report, “in the long run this will risk undermining the predictability and performance of the world’s most dynamic economy, preeminent investment destination, and issuer of the global reserve currency.”

No more Trump put?

Trump seems to have no intention of backing off his plans or moderating his “move fast and break things” approach, even in the face of economic dislocation. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down, but, you know what, we have to rebuild our country,” he said at the White House yesterday.

This contrasts sharply with his first term, when Trump considered the stock market a barometer of success. Back then, investors and business leaders knew they could count on the “Trump put” – the president’s tendency to curtail his most economically harmful policies when faced with financial turmoil. Now, Trump is openly saying he doesn’t care that investors believe his agenda could cause a recession and raise prices – because it might, and he’s convinced the sacrifice will be worth it for the greater good. “Will there be some pain?” he asked in February. “Maybe (and maybe not!) But we will make America great again, and it will all be worth the price that must be paid.”

So the Trump put either doesn’t exist anymore, or the threshold is significantly higher than it used to be. This makes sense when you consider the president doesn’t have to (read: can’t) run for reelection again. After being twice impeached, convicted, nearly assassinated, and taken for dead politically, the 78-year-old Trump is in a rush to cement his legacy before his “enemies” get another chance to take him down.

True, most presidents – even lame ducks – would consider avoiding a crippling economic meltdown, scoring a decent result in the midterms, and handing the reins to a same-party successor essential to a good legacy. But Trump is no ordinary president. He does not, for example, care much about the Republican Party (after all, he hasn't been a member for long). What he does care about is his own image. In that sense, he is still constrained by public opinion – or rather, his perception of it.

The key question is whether there’s anyone around him who can speak truth to power to a man who has famously little patience for being told he’s wrong. As I wrote in Eurasia Group’s Top Risks report:

Not only does the president-elect have unified government and consolidated control of the Republican Party, but he is building a more personally loyal and ideologically aligned administration than last time. His team will come into office ready to implement – rather than thwart – Trump’s agenda.

If his first 50 days are any indication, the US economy may be in for a lot more trouble until reality pierces his bubble … if it ever does. The beatings will continue until morale improves.

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Ukraine gets a win. How will Putin respond?

The United States and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire with Russia yesterday following negotiations in Saudi Arabia. In exchange for this show of goodwill, the US resumed military and intelligence support for Kyiv, which had been suspended last week after Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous White House meeting on Feb. 28. Well played for a man who had no cards.

The ball is now in Vladimir Putin’s court to respond. I suspect he’ll be reluctant to accept a no-strings-attached truce at a time when he has the battlefield momentum and a whole lot of demands (on Ukrainian neutrality, sovereignty, NATO membership, elections, etc.). The Russian leader has shown no indication thus far that he’s interested in a ceasefire, but he also would prefer not to be blamed by Donald Trump for tanking the negotiations, lest he do another U-turn and support the Ukrainians.

So how will Putin play this? And would Trump actually pressure him to accept a ceasefire, or is he still willing to cut a deal with the Russians that throws the Ukrainians under the bus?

Watch me explain in my latest Quick Take.

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You ask, I answer

This week, you asked:

• Are we on the cusp of an era of nuclear proliferation as Poland and Germany talk of acquiring nuclear weapons?

• Does Justin Trudeau's replacement, Mark Carney, have a shot of winning Canada's general election?

Check out my answers to your questions in the latest World in 60 Seconds.

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​Should the Baltics be worried?

Putin isn’t stopping with Ukraine. That’s the view from the Baltics, where leaders have no illusions about what comes next if Russia isn’t decisively checked.

In my conversation on GZERO World with Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže, she laid it out clearly: Russia is already waging hybrid war against the West – cyberattacks, disinformation, economic pressure – and he’s long had ambitions in the Baltic states. While tanks aren’t rolling across NATO borders (yet), Braže says the alliance should be preparing to make sure it’s ready if – or when – that day comes.

Watch the clip here and catch my full interview with Braže in the latest episode of “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer,” also airing on your local public television station.

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Moose’s treat of the week

“The Government Knows A.G.I. Is Coming,” the edited transcript of Ezra Klein’s podcast interview with Biden’s AI czar, Ben Buchanan. A sobering read (or listen!) that will leave you wondering what you can do to prepare for the arrival of extraordinarily capable and disruptive AI systems, whether or not you buy his timeline.